The US seems to have a very limited intervention
strategy in the Korean peninsula. Facing several incidents, including the seizure
of USS Pueblo (February 1968), the EC-121 shootdown incident (April 1969) that
killed 31 American soldiers, and the Panmunjom axe murder incident (August
1976) that killed two American soldiers, the US did not take any self-defense
measures in retaliation, but only responded with a show of military force. The US
was probably worried that its military attacks on North Korea, at the height of
the Cold War, could provoke counterattacks from China and the Soviet Union, a
close military ally with North Korea. Other elements, such as opinions of
Congress and of the American public, might have influenced such inaction of the
US. The US remains extremely cautious about any possible military conflict in
the Korean peninsula. The US’s solo intervention is therefore unlikely to
happen, even if a sudden change occurs in North Korea.
Yet, the US has a plan to dismantle North Korea’s
weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program, in the event of a sudden change.
However, China would strongly oppose US’s solo intervention, even though both
countries are discussing the dismantlement the WMD. Another possible scenario
for the US would be that, once the WMDs are eliminated, US forces leave North
Korean territory to avoid any military confrontation with China, letting the UN
to deal with the North Korea issue. This way, China, a permanent member of the
UN Security Council, can bring financial and police force support to North
Korea and control the country by putting pro-Chinese officials in power.
An intervention of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command
under OPLAN 5029 is also worthy of consideration. According to the Mutual
Defense Treaty Between the US and the Republic of Korea, entry of the ROK-US
Combined Forces Command into North Korea is possible when there is an attack or
risk of an attack from the North on South Korean territory. However, the entry
of the US forces in the North would generate strong opposition from China. When
the US forces crossed the 38th parallel after having recovered Seoul on
September 28, 1950 during the Korean War, China made it clear the South Korean
forces would be allowed to cross 38th parallel but not the US forces. China has
already deepened the division of the Korean peninsula by supporting the North
with a massive military force, which went against international law. Military
confrontation with China is therefore unavoidable for the US after entering
North Korea even for the ROK-US Combined Forces Command.
In order to avoid opposition from China, South Korea will have to look for the possibility of entering the North alone under the leadership of US forces. This scenario will minimize or avoid the intervention of China on the principal that the Korean Peninsula is constitutionally Korean territory and the North is thus a region that was not recovered. To put it differently, OPLAN 5029 will be transformed from a conceptual plan into an operational plan that will be led by the ROK-US Combined Forces Command in accordance with OPLAN 5027, but carried out by the South Korean forces alone. If the South Korean forces, under the direction of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, restore order in the North and swiftly dismantle its WMD, Chinese intervention can be minimized.
In order to avoid opposition from China, South Korea will have to look for the possibility of entering the North alone under the leadership of US forces. This scenario will minimize or avoid the intervention of China on the principal that the Korean Peninsula is constitutionally Korean territory and the North is thus a region that was not recovered. To put it differently, OPLAN 5029 will be transformed from a conceptual plan into an operational plan that will be led by the ROK-US Combined Forces Command in accordance with OPLAN 5027, but carried out by the South Korean forces alone. If the South Korean forces, under the direction of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, restore order in the North and swiftly dismantle its WMD, Chinese intervention can be minimized.
20160212
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